Practice area · Kansas City and remote

Causal Inference & Marketing Mix Modeling

Most dashboards show what moved together. Causal inference asks what would have happened if you had made a different decision, which is the question a budget owner actually needs answered. Vector 1 builds marketing mix models, causal graphs and experiments that separate real effects from coincidence, and reports every estimate with an honest range.

What we do

  • Bayesian marketing mix modeling (PyMC-Marketing, Robyn, Meridian and our own Papilon), with adstock, saturation and budget optimization
  • Calibrating models against lift tests and geo experiments, so channel ROI reflects what experiments show
  • Causal discovery and simulation with PyCausalSim: map what drives what before estimating anything
  • Experiment and pilot design: difference-in-differences, staggered rollouts and power analysis

Talk about your project

Tell us what you're trying to measure, forecast or decide. We work with teams in Kansas City and remotely, and we reply within two business days.

Email [email protected]

Try it: interactive demos

Common questions

What is marketing mix modeling?

Marketing mix modeling (MMM) is a statistical model of how each marketing channel, plus price, promotions and seasonality, contributes to sales over time. It uses aggregate weekly or daily data, so it doesn't need user-level tracking, and it estimates carryover (adstock) and diminishing returns (saturation) to support budget decisions.

How is causal inference different from attribution or correlation?

Attribution and correlation describe which touchpoints and outcomes occur together. Causal inference estimates what an outcome would have been under a different decision, using experiments, quasi-experiments such as difference-in-differences, or models that adjust for confounders. That difference is why two channels can look equally good in a dashboard and have very different true returns.

Do you work with teams outside Kansas City?

Yes. Vector 1 is based in Kansas City and works with teams in the metro and remotely.